FastCompany has seen the Future, and it looks like an hourglass:
To get a sense of what lies ahead, consider a simple demographic tool: the "population pyramid." Imagine that we took all of the people in a given population and stacked them up by age, putting all the infants at the bottom and all the centenarians up top. For most stable, peacetime societies, the resulting figure would look like a pyramid, with the youngest people at the base and the oldest people up at the tip. And indeed, that is exactly what you see today in a place like India--a perfectly sloped pyramid with lots and lots of babies at the bottom and a handful of the ancient. By contrast, in what passes for a demographic joke (given our fondness for Fritos and Cinnabon), the current U.S. pyramid looks like an overweight contestant on The Biggest Loser, with the giant baby boom billowing out from its midsection.
Starting in the next decade, however, our flabby pyramid is quickly going to slim down. It will assume the form of an hourglass, with the largest number of older people in our society's history, the quasi-retired baby boomers, up top, and the largest generation of young people since the boomers--the millennials, or echo boomers--at the bottom. The beleaguered generation-Xers will form the "pinched waist" in the middle.
This hourglass demographic has major implications for the workforce. In fact, the impending retirement of the Baby Boom generation looms large in the consciousness of workforce planners, as it gives rise to two major challenges for employers:
- Finding quality workers - With the Boomers exiting the scene, there will be many more jobs in the economy than people to fill them. This projection holds even accounting for the jobs that go offshore. This holds true even assuming that many Boomers will continue to work due to an unwillingness or inability to retire. Workforce experts are predicting a "War for Talent". Some say it's already upon us.
- Reducing knowledge loss - Job mobility is already an established phenomenon in the workforce. The old model of working for a single employer until you got your gold watch went out decades ago. As the Boomers cycle out, organizations will leak knowledge like a sieve.
What to do about it? At New Equities, our view is that a new workforce model is needed, one that dwells less on meaningless distinctions between "permanent" and "contract" employees, and focuses instead on an organization's relationship with mission-critical talent, regardless of its current location or status. We'll be returning to this topic again and again, as we expect it to be front and center for any organization concerned about attracting and retaining qualified workers.
(Hat tip: Praba)