Whither Microsoft post-Vista?

On his blog at Information Week, Alexander Wolfe muses that, with the release of Visa, Microsoft may have reached its upper limit:

In software terms, there are two interesting trends, which underscore Vista's probable place as Microsoft's high OS watermark. First, Vista has essentially -- and at long last -- brought most of the features of Apple's Mac OS X to the Wintel platform. (Widgets/Gadgets, anyone?)

Secondly, Linux has effectively disintermediated expensive software vendors like Microsoft (much like bloggers have in some sense cut the rug out from under not quite as well compensated journalists such as myself, though I'm running hard to catch up :).

For Microsoft, it seems to me that the only real question going forward is, will the company's fate mirror more closely that of DEC (Digital Equipment Corp., to readers under 40), or of IBM?

Funny, people were making the same kinds of assessments about Apple a few years ago.

UPDATE: CNET's "Vista for the Masses" is a veritable Vista-palooza for anyone interested.